CFB Spreads

loading…

Market quality Sort Actionable only

No games match those filters.

How this works. Kalshi quotes a two-sided ladder of “team wins by over X.5 points” markets on each game. Each price is a probability, so the ladder is a full margin-of-victory distribution — the chance a side covers any number is read straight off the market rather than from a power rating.

Two clocks. The headline record locks an hour before each kickoff, when Kalshi’s volume peaks — open interest grew a median of 80% between Thursday and kickoff, and on one game 4,618%. That measures the method at its sharpest, not the picks you could actually submit on Wednesday night; the Thursday noon record is still there, one click down, across every market. Click any record to see the individual picks behind it.

Two different things, two different colours. The grey badge is market quality — how precisely Kalshi is quoting that game, from S · Deep market down to D · Unreadable market. It describes the market, not the bet. The blue badge is pick strength — lean, solid, strong, set by the size of the edge. A deep market can still produce a lean, and a C-grade market is capped at lean however big the edge looks, because at that grade the number the edge was measured against is not solid enough to bet harder on.

Four tabs, four records. Master is the tool’s official pick and the one whose record counts. The other three each show a single comparison and keep their own separate record, using a looser rule — any edge over a point, with none of the master’s safety checks — because the point of a lens is to measure whether that signal carries information at all. Their definitions never change, so after a few weeks they show which signal is actually carrying the result.

The band matters more than the number. Deriving the implied spread twice, once from bids and once from asks, gives the market’s own uncertainty. When a line sits inside that band, the apparent edge is smaller than the noise it was measured against, and the tool says No play rather than inventing a pick.

Kalshi and Vegas are both reasonably efficient markets. Real edges are small and often explained by liquidity. This is a screening tool, not a guarantee — the graded record above is the honest test of whether it is worth anything.